Tips for improving your online horse gambling
by: DylanFox |
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There is something that professional gamblers will never tell you - and that is that they hardly ever gamble. You will not find your seasoned pro putting ?50 on the 3:15 at Kempton because some bloke down the pub reckoned it would make him a few bucks. In fact, they never gamble - they play percentages.
Horse racing has dodginess ingrained in it. From the Kieron Fallon scandals to a huge range of issues involving jockeys and trainers alike, horse racing - especially at the lower end of the scale - is something of a mug's game. When the stakes are lower, it seems the risks taken by jockeys and trainers are even greater. That is why I never, ever bet on a low-grade horse race (unless it's a pound here or a pound there for a laugh). I never put serious money on a maiden or a selling race.
I try to stick to just two races - but I arm myself with plenty of statistics and information about the shortlisted horses. So how do I get my shortlist?
The Grand National at Aintree very rarely has the big names that Cheltenham throws up, but it has the history - and boy do we need history. I love this race - the atmosphere, the thrills and the spills - and the winnings. Ah yes, you can make money on the Grand National. In February or March, you'll find the first list of runners and riders, with weights. I use this list for the ante-post betting - I always have a shortlist. Here's how I find my horse:
1. I eliminate all horses younger than 8 and older than 11. 2. I eliminate all horses carrying more than 11 stone. 3. I eliminate all horses that have not run at Aintree. 4. I favour all horses that have run at Aintree and won at this distance. 5. I favour horses that are 9 or 10 years old.
It doesn't always work - Hedgehunter is an exception to my rule having won at over 11 stone, but sometimes you have to look beyond the list to find the right horse. The Grand National is NOT the lottery people say it is so do not pick with a pin and do not just go with what you got in the office sweepstake. You can find yourself at least a very good each-way bet if you shortlist yourself five or six decent horses.
Now, having spent ten years in France, my other favourite is the Prix de l'Arc at Longchamp. It is also France's most consistent arce - and I still believe that Dylan Thomas was an exception to a very consistent rule. Here's how I find a winner:
1. I look for a French-trained horse. 2. I look for the winner of the Prix Niel, a month before the Arc. 3. I look for a lightly run horse, preferably with five or six runs under its belt. 4. I look for a horse that has run - and won - at Longchamp before. 5. I eliminate Derby winners.
Now the Arc is a peculiar race for many reasons. Many trainers take a horse there after a long season and think that they can win simply on form - but this really is a late race and many horses are best at the start or in the middle of the season. Hence the "lightly run" factor. Derby winners come early in the season and very rarely adapt to Longchamp.
The racetrack is very specific - it has a huge straight which comes after a very long bend. So using this method, you will come up with two or three horses at most - and perhaps the odd outsider older than three, you never know. As I mentioned before, this is a game of percentages and you must always study the history of the race, not just the history of each horse.
Take this approach for other races - study the past winners, study the past itself, and you will be able to project into the future what will happen seven or eight times out of ten. And then, you will be a professional gambler like the very best of them!
About the Author
Before you open an account with a bookie and get yourself a free bet, make sure you read up on each bookie and the potential catches to their promotions from the Free Bet Bookmaker.
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